Ottawa’s warehouse labour force expected to grow

CBRE Canada’s latest “Emerging Industrial Markets” spotlight shines a light on Ottawa’s potential for growth in the logistics sector, saying the city’s warehouse labour force is expected to grow by 14 per cent by 2034, according to Oxford Economics and the Government of Canada Job Bank.

“Ottawa’s strong industrial real estate fundamentals have attracted many new investors and developers, resulting in 5.5 per cent annual growth of the market’s total industrial inventory since 2022,” said Steve Piercey, vice-president, CBRE, in the report. “Its strategic location within a prime logistics corridor between the Southern Ontario and Quebec markets provides easy access to the U.S. border. Total industrial inventory growth of 3.6 per cent is expected by year-end 2025.”

CBRE said that approximately 20 per cent of the 20 million Canadians who live within 400 kilometres of downtown Ottawa are aged 20 to 34—the biggest users of e-commerce, which is a prime demand driver for warehouse and distribution space. Population within a 80-km radius is expected to grow by nearly 10 per cent over the next five years.

The spotlight goes on to say that Ottawa’s average salary for a non-supervisory warehouse worker is $20 per hour and that there are 27,209 warehouse and storage employees in the region, with a projected 30,894 in the next decade.

CBRE says Ottawa offers numerous competitive advantages that make it attractive to industrial real estate investors. The market is just a two-hour drive from the Port of Montreal and a four-hour drive from Canada’s largest city, Toronto. Ottawa International Airport is also home to many international logistics companies, including DHL, Exel, FedEx and UPS.

Supply and demand

Just 7,000 sq. ft. of new supply was delivered in the first half of 2024—the market’s lowest volume since H1 2021. However, with four buildings totaling 684,000 sq. ft. currently under construction, incoming new supply is expected to surpass the previous market high set in 2023.

Many planned projects won’t break ground until the developer secures an anchor tenant. Rosefellow’s 479,000-sq.-ft., two-building development in Kanata is nearing completion and Broccolini’s fully pre-leased 984,000-sq.-ft. warehouse and distribution centre in Cornwall is underway.