ITS Logistics warns of slowing momentum, tariff uncertainty in latest supply chain report

ITS Logistics says the U.S. economy showed mixed signals in August, with growth and consumer spending remaining positive but inflation persisting above target.

In its September Supply Chain Report, the company said a recession does not appear imminent, though “momentum is clearly slowing, and economic uncertainty continues to rise heading into Q4.”

Containerized imports at the Top 10 U.S. ports fell 4.1 per cent in August, with declines at key West Coast gateways offset by gains at Seattle, Savannah and Norfolk. ITS noted the figures reflect both seasonal trends and shifting trade patterns as shippers react to tariff uncertainty.

“We’re now seeing ecommerce companies implement a tariff arbitrage strategy in response to the ongoing changes in global trade,” said Josh Allen, chief commercial officer of ITS Logistics. “These companies include everything from the luxury sector on down to those that provide what are considered to be lower-valued goods. This strategy is being leveraged to mitigate shifting tariff impacts and keep overall costs down for their consumers. It is a genius evolution in how companies are adapting to the economic impacts of tariffs and global supply chain management overall.”

Allen also pointed to “sticky underlying inflation,” noting core inflation reached 3.1 per cent in August while the headline rate rose to 2.9 per cent, the highest since January. “Inflation has decreased from peaks but remains above the Fed’s two per cent target and rising expectations risk making it more persistent,” he said.

The report said the modest increase in the Producer Price Index in August suggests stability in warehousing and storage, while trucking spot and contract rates continue to see minimal shifts as peak season begins.

Visit here for the full report.