UBC researchers develop AI framework to strengthen global supply chain resilience

Researchers at the University of British Columbia’s (UBC) Okanagan campus have developed an artificial intelligence framework to help organizations build more resilient supply chains amid growing global disruptions.

The study, published in Computers & Operations Research, introduces an AI-based model that combines operations research, machine learning and artificial intelligence to guide businesses in making better decisions under uncertainty, such as how to schedule orders, plan production and manage inventory when conditions change unexpectedly.

“Resilience is often discussed in broad terms, but our framework translates it into measurable financial decisions,” Dr. Mahsa Mohammadi, a lecturer in the School of Engineering, said in a release from UBC. “It helps decision-makers evaluate which strategy—whether multi-sourcing, consignment inventory or long-term contracts—delivers the best improvement in service level per dollar spent, even when tariffs, delays or demand changes come into play.”

The research team, which also includes Assistant Professor Dr. Babak Mohamadpour Tosarkani, tested the model through simulations of global disruptions such as supplier shutdowns, tariff hikes and shipping delays. Businesses that diversified suppliers and coordinated inventory management reduced disruption costs by nearly 30 per cent and improved recovery times compared with those reacting after problems occurred.

Allocating 10 to 15 per cent of a company’s budget to resilience measures, such as shared backup contracts or local production, significantly reduced overall risk, the study found.

“Public investments yield the greatest results when directed toward the supply chain elements most at risk of failure,” said Tosarkani. “Our model helps identify vulnerable components, suppliers or transport links and guides decision-makers toward interventions that prevent system-wide disruptions.”

The findings also caution that common cost-cutting measures, like bulk purchasing during tariff uncertainty, can drive up inventory costs. Instead, the researchers recommend adaptive inventory management and stronger data sharing among supply chain partners.

“Resilience should be viewed as a strategic strength, not an added cost,” said Mohammadi. “By using AI and optimization, organizations can measure how prepared they are and make stronger, evidence-based investment decisions.”