ITS Logistics report points to volatile but stabilizing freight market

ITS Logistics says the North American freight market is entering 2026 with a more cautious outlook as peak-season pressures give way to softer demand and policy-driven uncertainty.

In its December Supply Chain Report, the third-party logistics provider said regional trucking capacity tightened during peak season amid severe winter weather, while broader indicators such as industrial activity and warehouse utilization softened.

“Heading into the year-end, the supply chain is being shaped less by a single pressure point and more by the convergence of several somewhat volatile factors,” said Josh Allen, chief commercial officer at ITS Logistics. “Seasonal demand is still present, but it’s now intersecting with labor constraints, policy risk and new consumer trends, which is changing how capacity is utilized across the market.”

The report noted uneven tightening in trucking conditions in November, as storms across the U.S. Midwest disrupted freight flows and pushed spot rates higher in some regional markets. National seven-day rolling average spot rates for both reefer and dry van equipment increased into early December, with reefer rates reaching the third-highest Week 50 level on record, according to DAT Freight and Analytics.

Flatbed rates rose only marginally, reflecting weaker underlying demand tied to tariffs, higher borrowing costs and delayed construction activity. ITS cited recent earnings commentary from Home Depot, which pointed to consumer hesitation around large renovation and construction projects.

ITS also flagged evolving driver regulations as a growing source of uncertainty beyond peak season. The report highlighted a newly filed lawsuit challenging California’s move to cancel nearly 20,000 commercial driver’s licences, alleging many of the cancellations were caused by administrative or clerical errors. The case has drawn attention to potential impacts on Sikh drivers, who the report said represent roughly 20 per cent of the U.S. driver pool.

At U.S. ports, containerized import volumes declined 5.4 per cent month over month to 2.18 million TEUs. Year-to-date volumes are now just 0.1 per cent higher than in 2024, down from double-digit growth earlier in the year, although November remained one of the stronger import months on record.

On the macroeconomic front, the report said November data showed a cooling but resilient U.S. economy, with easing inflation, slower job growth and weaker consumer confidence. The National Retail Federation reported marginal month-over-month growth in retail sales, while full-season holiday sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time.