Temporary tariff relief sparks surge in imports, but cargo theft, rail congestion loom: ITS Logistics

A temporary easing of tariffs between the U.S. and China is expected to spark a sharp rise in imports and an early start to peak season, even as rail congestion and cargo theft pose mounting risks, according to the May forecast from ITS Logistics’ US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.

On May 12, trade officials announced a 90-day tariff reduction, with the U.S. lowering duties on Chinese goods from 145 to 30 per cent, while China dropped tariffs on U.S. goods to 10 per cent from 125 per cent. The move comes after months of rising tensions and a steep decline in imports due to earlier tariff hikes.

“I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,” said Paul Brashier, vice-president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. He called the temporary reprieve “the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China,” adding, “Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time.”

However, increased use of interior point intermodal (IPI) routing is creating new chokepoints at inland rail ramps, while cargo theft is rising sharply at rail interchange points. According to ITS, criminal networks are targeting weaknesses in freight technology and logistics systems, resulting in nearly $1 billion in annual losses.

Highway, a fraud prevention firm, blocked over 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024 and more than 400,000 in the first quarter of 2025. The Association of American Railroads also reported a 40 per cent year-over-year increase in container theft in 2024.

“Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on front-loaded inventories,” Brashier said. “However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.”

ITS Logistics is advising companies to prepare for an extended peak season through Q3 and anticipate possible economic growth in Q4 due to changes in tax, deregulation, and federal reserve policies.

The monthly index forecasts container and drayage trends across U.S. port regions and rail ramps.