Tariffs reshape U.S. trade flows as shipping disruptions ease: report

A new report from supply chain visibility firm project44 says tariff-driven disruptions to U.S. trade appear to be stabilizing, even as trade volumes between the United States and China remain under pressure.

The report found blank sailings — cancelled shipping voyages used by carriers to manage reduced demand — peaked in April 2025 at 131 sailings across major trade lanes but fell to just 11 in January, the lowest level in more than a year. Routes between Asia and the U.S. saw the highest number of cancellations during the peak period.

The data suggests carriers have adjusted to shifting trade conditions following sweeping tariffs introduced by the U.S. in April 2025. The measures imposed a 10 per cent tariff on most imports and higher duties on sectors such as steel, aluminum and automotive parts.

Despite improved shipping stability, trade between the U.S. and China continues to decline.

Imports from China dropped 29 per cent in 2025 compared with 2024 levels, with volumes falling another 35 per cent in January compared with the same month a year earlier. The slowdown occurred despite the typical inventory buildup ahead of the Lunar New Year, when factories across Asia temporarily shut down.

Exports from the U.S. to China also fell sharply, declining 37 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year. Shipments briefly rebounded in December 2025, rising 14 per cent following trade discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but exports dropped again in January 2026.

The report says U.S. importers are increasingly shifting sourcing strategies toward Southeast Asia. Imports from Thailand rose 30 per cent in 2025, while shipments from Indonesia increased 34 per cent. Growth continued into January, with Indonesia posting a 35 per cent year-over-year increase.

While tariffs remain in place on goods from many countries, the report suggests companies are adapting supply chains and carrier schedules to manage ongoing trade uncertainty.

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