Container rates surge, but expected to weaken in second half of the year

Drewry’s World Container Index jumped 10 per cent to US$2,508 per 40-ft container the week of May 26-30, the first double-digit increase in nearly a year.

Drewry’s WCI has increased 21 per cent in the last three weeks, as President Donald Trump’s pause on import tariffs led to a resumption of U.S.-bound traffic after the initial collapse of transpacific volumes.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumped 17 per cent to US$3,738 per 40-ft container in the past week and 38 per cent since May 8. Spot rates to New York have risen 14 per cent in the past week and 42 per cent in the past three weeks.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa have also risen in the past week, by six per cent and three per cent, respectively.

This was the first double-digit rise in the composite index since July 2024.

The latest sudden, short-term strengthening in supply-demand balance in global container shipping has reversed the trend of declining rates, which started in January.

However, Drewry’s container forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in the second half of the year, which will cause spot rates to decline. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on the outcome of legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of the U.S. penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.