Truckload rates continue upward trend but growth slows: RXO

Spot truckload rates across North America continued to rise year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, though the pace of that growth has slowed, according to RXO’s latest Curve market forecast update.

The North Carolina-based transportation solutions provider reported a 9.1 per cent year-over-year increase in spot rates for Q1, down from 11.6 per cent in the previous quarter. The report noted early-quarter volatility driven by post-holiday shipping and weather, followed by a return to pre-peak levels for capacity and rates.

“The market calmed throughout the first quarter, which we expected given typical seasonality,” said Corey Klujsza, vice-president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The real question is, will we see sustained momentum when it comes to rate increases as we get deeper into the busier summer shipping season? Regardless, carriers are under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and though freight demand may not spike, there is still potential for a tighter capacity environment later in the year.”

The Q2 Curve forecast expects typical summer shipping patterns to introduce some spot market volatility, while shippers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty.

“Shippers have had to contend with a tremendous amount of uncertainty throughout the first quarter and into the second,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “They’re employing many different strategies in response. They’re also deciding whether to increase inventory and whether there will be enough demand to warrant that inventory build-up. While we’re operating in a very fluid and uncertain environment, de-escalating trade tensions provide shippers with an opportunity to strategically increase inventory and plan for the second half of the year.”