ITS Logistics warns of growing uncertainty across U.S. supply chain

ITS Logistics says North American supply chains are facing mounting uncertainty as import and export volumes continue to decline and new regulations reshape trucking and trade activity.

In its November US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, the company reported that lower container volumes have eased congestion at ports and rail ramps, even as broader economic activity softens.

“With volume decreases, port, terminal, and ocean carrier operations remain at normal levels and should remain so through November,” said Paul Brashier, vice-president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “However, there are some items we are keeping a close eye on that could drastically change the landscape in North American port and ramp operations.”

U.S. container imports totaled 2.3 million TEUs in October, down 7.5 per cent from 2024. While month-over-month volumes slipped only 0.1 per cent, the decline runs counter to typical seasonal patterns and reflects what the company described as shipper caution and reliance on frontloaded inventories.

China-origin imports saw their first increase since August, rising 5.4 per cent. The uptick comes amid turbulent trade discussions between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, including an agreement by Trump to cut fentanyl-linked tariffs and a joint move by both countries to suspend port call fees for one year.

Tariff instability continues to weigh heavily on import activity. The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments this month in the Trump administration’s tariffs case, a decision that could reshape future trade policy and possibly trigger refund claims on duties paid since 2018. Consumers are also tightening spending, with Deloitte projecting holiday budgets will be 10 per cent lower than last year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. trucking sector is navigating shifting rules affecting non-domiciled commercial drivers and English language proficiency requirements. States have been grappling with compliance following a federal freeze on issuing and renewing non-domiciled CDLs. An appeals court has now temporarily blocked enforcement of that freeze, though English language requirements remain in effect and are being heavily enforced.

“It is estimated that as many as 600,000 drivers could be removed from the US driver ecosystem due to non-domiciled drivers and English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement,” Brashier said. “This, in addition to the acceleration of trucking companies exiting the market, could create trucking capacity issues for most shippers. It is a situation we are monitoring closely.”

ITS Logistics provides transportation, distribution and fulfillment services across North America, including drayage and intermodal support at 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps. The company’s freight index includes forecasts for port and rail ramp operations across Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf and inland regions.