U.S. sees soft December imports, potential tariff-driven rebound

ITS Logistics says U.S. import volumes declined through December despite growing trade lanes from Southeast Asia, according to its January Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.

The index shows container imports totalled 2.23 million twenty-foot equivalent units in December, up two per cent from November but down 5.9 per cent year over year. Full-year 2025 volumes finished 0.4 per cent below 2024 levels, erasing hopes that early frontloading would sustain annual growth as demand weakened in the second half of the year.

“Port congestion remains low into the new year, with isolated issues of empty return appointment availability being reported, especially at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,” said Paul Brashier, vice-president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “However, volumes to the Southeast and Northeast regions are increasing due to new trade lanes opening from Southeast Asia, as well as the reopening of the Red Sea.”

Imports from Southeast Asia posted modest gains in December, led by Vietnam, where volumes rose 5.4 per cent month over month and 21.5 per cent year over year, according to Descartes Systems Group. ITS said the trend reflects shippers diversifying sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff exposure, even as overall demand remains constrained.

The report notes that pre–Lunar New Year shipments are beginning to move across transatlantic lanes toward the Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest, though volumes are expected to remain below historical norms. Elevated tariffs, inflation and higher costs are limiting the traditional seasonal surge. Chinese import volumes are estimated to be down 28 per cent amid tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with markets awaiting a Supreme Court ruling.

“If the IEEPA tariffs were to be removed from all imported goods, there would certainly be an increase in imports,” Brashier said. “Especially for goods recently being sourced in higher-tariffed countries.”

Beyond the ports, ITS said inland transportation markets face growing uncertainty from state-level enforcement actions targeting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licences. California has extended a cancellation deadline affecting about 17,000 licences to March 6, while Tennessee has issued notices to roughly 8,800 drivers requiring proof of citizenship or lawful presence. North Carolina may follow similar action after a federal audit found more than half of sampled non-domiciled licences were issued in violation of federal guidelines.

The ITS Logistics Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index tracks port, rail ramp and inland trucking conditions across the Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf regions, along with key inland transportation risks influencing capacity and rates.