Turmoil and resilience the theme of Canada’s logistics sector in 2024

The theme for 2024 in the Canadian supply chain has been marked by labour disruptions, union tensions and international trade challenges.

From labour disputes involving dockworkers on the West Coast, the Montreal port strikes and the Air Canada pilot strike, to the Canada Post strike and the arbitration for one of the most significant lockouts in history between CN and CPKC—still unfolding as I write—2024 has certainly been one for the books.

Though these disputes address different issues, they all pose the same risk: a significant impact on Canada’s supply chain and, ultimately, the economy.

Here’s a look back at what has undeniably been one of the most turbulent supply chain years in recent history:

In June, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) was in a legal strike position, citing fair wages, flexible work hours and improved benefits. While the strike was averted, a work stoppage could have led to extended border wait times and entry documentation delays, potentially catastrophic for many Canadian imports.

The CN/CPKC lockout ended Aug. 26, though no resolution has been reached. This dispute stemmed from worker demands for better wages, benefits and scheduling. Although the current collective agreement prevents further strikes or lockouts, mediation isn’t scheduled until March 2025. If no agreement is reached, arbitration will begin in April, with a 60-day period for the arbitrator to issue a decision.

Air Canada pilots narrowly avoided a potential strike with one of the largest wage increases in Canadian history, amounting to a 42 per cent raise and nearly $2 billion in additional value over a four-year period.

On Oct. 31, two of Montreal’s four port terminals were shut down as dockworkers initiated a new partial strike, disrupting 40 per cent of operations at one of Canada’s busiest ports. This walkout was part of an ongoing strike on overtime shifts, following a three-day strike at the same terminals earlier in the month.

Meanwhile, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Ship and Dock Foremen Local 514 launched an open-ended strike Nov. 4, affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert, Canada’s busiest ports. This strike is expected to have ripple effects, driving up freight costs and causing congestion at ports and inland rail facilities just as we approach the holiday season. It’s anticipated that this work stoppage could impact $800 million in goods daily. In a similar strike last year, a 13-day stoppage affected over $6 billion in Canadian trade.

As the world’s largest producer and exporter of potash, Canada’s West Coast ports are essential for exporting this resource overseas; a shutdown would cost the industry $9.7 million in lost revenue per day. With 33.72 per cent of Canada’s GDP tied to exports and 33.54 per cent tied to imports, disruptions at ports could have astronomical consequences.

Canada Post workers also went on strike Nov. 15, impacting parcel and mail service for millions of Canadians as the holiday season approaches. Canada Post announced Nov. 12 it had received a 72-hour strike notice from the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) for both urban and rural and suburban mail carrier bargaining units with CUPW in a legal position to begin strike activity. Canada Post said it would continue delivering packages it had received prior to the strike but would not accept any new mail or parcels while negotiations were ongoing.

If that wasn’t enough to keep supply chain professionals awake at night, the U.S. election has added another layer of uncertainty. Canadians were on edge awaiting the outcome, as both presidential candidates raised concerns around potential trade disruptions. Either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency brought the possibility of renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and broader trade with Canada. Trump, in particular, campaigned on imposing global tariffs and encouraging U.S. manufacturing.

Now, with Trump elected as the 47th president, there’s much anticipation about what this could mean for Canadians. A key issue is the USMCA, which Trump renegotiated during his first term. In 2018, he signed the USMCA, replacing NAFTA, which he had labelled “the worst trade deal ever made.” Now, he’s looking to renegotiate it once more. Early on election night, Trump announced plans to impose a 10 per cent global tariff on all imported goods, a move that could significantly impact the Canadian economy.

Ottawa has signaled a willingness to negotiate, seeking either tariff exemptions or some form of relief—a discussion that will be watched closely by Canadians and supply chain professionals alike.

With the future of Canada’s ongoing labour disruptions uncertain and the looming possibility of trade conflicts with the U.S., it’s clear that nothing is set in stone as we approach 2025. However, if the Canadian supply chain has proven anything, it’s resilient, and we’re ready to take on whatever challenges lie ahead.