U.S. port congestion risk grows amid import surge from China: ITS Logistics

A surge in east-to-west freight volumes, combined with trans-shipment delays in Asia and growing congestion at U.S. ports and rail ramps, is pushing inland logistics operations toward a volatile summer, according to the June forecast from ITS Logistics’ U.S. Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.

“Most ports are running at 60 to 75 per cent capacity, suggesting port operations and vessel congestion should operate efficiently,” said Paul Brashier, vice-president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “However, with temporary tariff relief boosting Chinese import volumes in the second half of the retail season, there are growing concerns about whether receiving capacity can effectively absorb these volumes.”

Following the April suspension of tariffs on Chinese imports, retailers accelerated back-half inventory orders, triggering a frontloading surge that has sent container rates soaring. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index reported a 31 per cent weekly increase in early June. Spot rates to the U.S. West Coast jumped 58 per cent to US$6,243 per 40-foot container, while East Coast rates rose 46 per cent to US$5,172.

Despite a rebound from May’s 13.4 per cent import drop, the Global Port Tracker’s June projection of 2.01 million TEUs still marks a 6.2 per cent year-over-year decline, reflecting lingering caution among shippers amid geopolitical uncertainty.

On June 11, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a pending trade deal with China that includes proposed tariffs of 55 per cent on Chinese imports and 10 per cent on American exports, although the final terms remain unclear.

Beyond port terminals, Southern California faces worsening issues with empty container returns due to restricted depot access and stricter carrier policies. “With container termination challenges compounding port and depot congestion—and a wave of frontloaded imports moving rapidly inland—any inefficiencies could drive significant cost increases through detention costs, delays and fraud,” Brashier said.

Shippers are being urged to consider transload, cross-dock and one-way trucking options to reduce risk and maintain delivery timelines during the unconventional peak season.