Air cargo emerges as “hero of global trade” in IATA’s 2026 outlook

Air cargo is expected to play a central role in the airline industry’s financial performance next year, according to the International Air Transport Association’s latest global outlook.

IATA projects cargo volumes will rise to 71.6 million tonnes in 2026, up 2.4 per cent from 2025, even as world trade growth remains weak. Cargo revenues are forecast to reach US$158 billion, a 2.1-per-cent increase, while yields are expected to remain stable (-0.5 per cent in 2025) and elevated (approximately 30 per cent above pre-pandemic levels).

The report highlights air freight’s resilience amid shifting global trade routes and protectionist policies, particularly in the United States.

“The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments.”

Walsh added that cargo has helped companies move goods ahead of tariff deadlines and redirect shipments to new markets when needed. “The critical role of air cargo is front and center as the global economy adjusts to new realities,” he said.

IATA expects time-sensitive shipments and e-commerce to continue driving growth in cargo tonne-kilometres, increasing 2.6 per cent in 2026. Tight capacity and ongoing supply chain constraints, particularly aircraft delivery delays, are also helping keep cargo yields from falling more sharply.

The outlook notes airlines will continue to face higher regulatory costs, infrastructure limitations and geopolitical risks in 2026. Despite those challenges, Walsh said airlines overall are expected to generate a 3.9-per-cent net margin and US$41 billion in profit next year.