Air cargo volumes up, but proposed tariffs spur caution for 2025

Global air cargo volumes rose 9.8 per cent in October compared to the same month last year, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The increase in demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), included a 10.3 per cent jump in international operations, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), climbed 5.9 per cent year-over-year in October, with international operations seeing a 7.2 per cent rise. International belly capacity grew by 8.5 per cent, while dedicated freighter capacity increased by 5.6 per cent, continuing a seven-month streak of growth. Freighter volumes are nearing their 2021 peak levels.

“Air cargo markets continued their strong performance in October, with demand rising 9.8 per cent year-on-year and capacity up 5.9 per cent. Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) continue to rise, up 10.6 per cent on 2023 and 49 per cent on 2019 levels,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution. The incoming Trump Administration’s announced intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners—Canada, China and Mexico—has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence. The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds.”

Several factors contributed to the operating environment in October:

• Industrial production and trade: Global industrial production rose 1.6 per cent in September, while global goods trade grew by 2.4 per cent year-over-year, marking six consecutive months of growth. The increase in trade is partly attributed to inventory stockpiling ahead of potential disruptions, such as a U.S. port strike.
• Manufacturing rebound: Global manufacturing activity rebounded in October. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output exceeded 50, signalling growth, although the PMI for new export orders remained below 50, reflecting uncertainty in global trade.
• Inflation trends: In October, U.S. annual headline inflation rose slightly to 2.58 per cent, ending a six-month decline. The European Union’s inflation rate increased to 2.33 per cent, while China’s inflation fell to 0.29 per cent, raising concerns about a possible economic slowdown.

Regional highlights

• North America: Carriers in the region recorded 9.5 per cent year-over-year demand growth in October, with capacity increasing by 5.8 per cent.
• Latin America: Airlines saw the strongest regional growth, with a year-over-year demand increase of 18.5 per cent and a 5.8 per cent rise in capacity.
• Africa: Demand in October grew by 1.6 per cent year-over-year, the slowest among regions, while capacity rose by 7.7 per cent.

International routes experienced robust growth, with traffic rising 10.3 per cent year-over-year in October. Airlines have benefited from strong e-commerce demand in the U.S. and Europe amid ongoing capacity constraints in ocean shipping.