Global air cargo demand rose in 2025 despite North American decline

Global air cargo demand increased 3.4 per cent year-over-year in 2025, while capacity rose 3.7 per cent, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, international demand grew 4.2 per cent for the year, with international capacity up 5.1 per cent. December capped the year with continued momentum, as global demand rose 4.3 per cent compared with December 2024 and capacity increased 4.5 per cent.

IATA said full-year yields declined 1.5 per cent year over year, the smallest drop in three years, as supply and demand moved closer to balance. Despite the decline, yields remained 37.2 per cent above 2019 levels.

“Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with demand up 3.4 per cent year-on-year. Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the U.S. faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions, and continuing policy uncertainty. Air cargo rose to the occasion,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

He said air cargo adapted quickly as shippers front-loaded deliveries ahead of tariff changes and as demand shifted within Asia and between Asia and Europe.

IATA expects growth to slow modestly in 2026, with demand forecast to rise 2.4 per cent.

“We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh said.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded the strongest growth, with demand up 8.4 per cent in 2025. African carriers followed with six per cent growth. European carriers saw demand rise 2.9 per cent, while Latin American and Caribbean airlines posted 2.3 per cent growth. Middle Eastern carriers reported a 0.3 per cent increase.

North American carriers were the only region to see a decline, with demand down 1.3 per cent year over year.

IATA said 2025 trade lane data shows a shift in air cargo flows from Asia–North America to Asia–Europe, driven by tariff pressures and the removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption. Growth was also recorded within Asia and on Middle East–Asia routes.