Global air cargo hits record March volume, possibly due to tariff-driven demand surge, says IATA

Global air cargo volumes reached a record high for the month of March, according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), as shippers possibly front-loaded freight to avoid anticipated U.S. tariffs.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, rose by 4.4 per cent year-over-year, with international operations seeing a 5.5 per cent increase. This marks a historic peak for March, the association said. Available cargo capacity also grew, up 4.3 per cent overall and 6.1 per cent for international services.

“March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed April 2 tariff announcement by the Trump Administration,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

“The uncertainty over how much of the proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo,” he said. “And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains.”

The IATA noted several contributing factors in the operating environment, including a typical post-February rise in air cargo volumes and declining jet fuel prices, which fell 17.3 per cent year-over-year in March. This marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year fuel price declines.

Tariff changes and trade restrictions also likely played a role in shifting buying behaviour, the association noted. A May 2 ban on duty-free imports from China and Hong Kong may have prompted businesses to accelerate purchases to avoid higher costs.

At the same time, global industrial output grew by 3.2 per cent while trade volumes rose 2.9 per cent. Consumer price inflation indicators softened in key markets, with U.S. inflation falling to 2.4 per cent and the E.U.’s to 2.5 per cent. Japan saw a 0.1-point drop to 3.6 per cent, while China remained in deflation at -0.1 per cent.

Asia-Pacific airlines led regional growth, with air cargo demand increasing 9.6 per cent year-over-year in March and capacity expanding by 11.3 per cent. North American carriers posted a 9.5 per cent rise in demand with a 6.1 per cent increase in capacity.

European airlines saw a 4.5 per cent increase in demand and a two per cent gain in capacity, while Latin American carriers recorded 5.8 per cent growth in demand and 4.7 per cent in capacity.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 3.2 per cent drop in demand, though capacity edged up by 0.8 per cent. IATA suggested this decline may be due to strong year-ago comparisons tied to Red Sea maritime freight disruptions.

African carriers saw the steepest drop in demand, falling 13.4 per cent year-over-year. Despite this, capacity surged 10.5 per cent.

Among global trade lanes, Europe–North America was the busiest in March. The Asia–North America route, which holds the largest market share, also posted strong gains, likely reflecting the push to move cargo ahead of potential tariff hikes. Europe–Middle East and Africa–Asia were the only trade lanes to see declines.