Global commercial vehicle sales surge amid e-commerce boom

The global commercial vehicle market is on track to nearly double in value over the next decade, reaching an estimated US$1.99 trillion by 2033, according to a new industry report. The market, currently valued at US$925.78 billion, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2 per cent from 2025 to 2033.

The strong performance is being driven by rising demand for transportation solutions, with global commercial vehicle sales projected to hit 28.5 million units in 2024—an increase of 7.9 per cent over 2023. The expansion of e-commerce, expected to reach US$6.3 trillion this year, has heightened the need for last-mile delivery services, further fueling sales growth.

The Asia Pacific region remains the dominant player in the commercial vehicle sector, accounting for nearly 35 per cent of global market share. China, which produced 4.04 million commercial vehicles in 2023, is a key driver of this growth, supported by rapid urbanization and government policies promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption. China aims for 20 per cent of all vehicle sales to be new energy vehicles by 2025.

Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) continue to lead the market, with sales expected to reach 18.7 million units in 2024, up 5.8 per cent from last year. Meanwhile, medium and heavy commercial vehicles are also seeing strong demand, with sales rising 12 per cent year-over-year to 3.3 million units in 2024. The heavy truck segment, in particular, is showing robust growth, with a 15 per cent increase to 2.1 million units sold.

The electric bus market is also expanding rapidly, with global sales jumping 56 per cent to 78,000 units in 2024, reflecting a shift towards greener transportation solutions.

Despite inflationary pressures and rising interest rates, the commercial vehicle sector has shown resilience. The average interest rate for commercial vehicle loans rose to 7.2 per cent in 2024, up from 6.5 per cent in 2023. However, demand remains strong, with fleet replacement orders increasing by 9.5 per cent year-over-year. Manufacturers have responded by ramping up production capacity by 7.3 per cent to meet demand.

The transition to electric and alternative fuel vehicles continues to gain momentum. The global electric truck market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 26.4 per cent through 2030, reaching a market size of US$3.9 billion. However, challenges such as supply chain disruptions and infrastructure limitations persist. Only 45 per cent of commercial fleet operators report adequate access to EV charging facilities, and cybersecurity threats have increased by 35 per cent compared to last year.

Financing remains a crucial factor in market growth, with commercial vehicle financing expected to expand from US$112.17 billion in 2025 to US$154.92 billion by 2030. Leasing has become a popular option, with a 15 per cent increase in contracts signed in 2024.

The United States leads the global market, accounting for 28.5 per cent of commercial vehicle sales, followed by China at 26.3 per cent. India, Germany, and Japan round out the top five, with emerging markets such as Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa also experiencing rapid growth.

As the sector adapts to technological advancements and economic pressures, industry leaders remain optimistic. The commercial vehicle market is projected to reach 30.2 million units sold in 2025, with an increasing shift towards electrification and sustainable transportation solutions.