Cass Freight Index shows flat March shipments, rising freight expenditures amid tariff concerns

North American freight volumes remained soft in March, with the Cass Freight Index reporting flat shipment levels month-over-month and a 5.3 per cent year-over-year decline.

The seasonally adjusted (SA) shipment index fell 2.1 per cent after a weather-boosted 4.9 per cent gain in February. Analysts attributed some of February’s uptick to pre-tariff shipping activity, a trend that may continue into the second quarter due to a temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs. However, ongoing trade tensions and tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. could dampen freight volumes later in the year.

Total freight expenditures rose 2.8 per cent in March and 1.5 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The year-over-year decline narrowed to 2.0 per cent, largely due to rising rates. Inferred freight rates rose 3.5 per cent year-over-year in March, suggesting modest pricing gains despite weaker volumes.

“Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes,” the report noted.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks per-mile truckload rates excluding fuel and accessorial charges, fell 0.1 per cent in March—breaking a six-month streak of small increases—though it remains 4.7 per cent above its August 2024 low.

Freight rates, which declined seven per cent in 2024, are on track for low- to mid-single-digit growth in 2025, according to forecasts from ACT Research.