ITS Logistics warns of tightening U.S. freight market heading into 2026 peak season

U.S. port and rail drayage markets are heading toward tighter capacity, rising congestion and higher prices as carriers prepare for the 2026 peak shipping season, according to a new forecast from ITS Logistics.

In its June U.S. Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, the company said all regions are now showing elevated concern as capacity exits the market and fuel costs rise, creating conditions for downstream congestion across ocean and rail container networks.

“Ocean and rail container drayage markets may not be feeling the market squeeze yet, but shippers should be prepared for tightening as soon as July, when peak season begins,” said Paul Brashier, vice-president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “It is not a question of if inland trucking container haulage rates increase, but when.”

Brashier said the U.S. trucking sector is operating under tension levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, following a prolonged freight downturn that reduced carrier counts and suppressed rates.

The report noted that SONAR’s National Truckload Index reached an all-time high of US$3.83 per mile early in June and is expected to remain above historical averages into the third quarter. Rising fuel costs, up about 50 per cent from June 2025, and stricter regulatory enforcement are also contributing to reduced capacity and upward pricing pressure.

The Logistics Managers’ Index placed transportation capacity at 28.4 per cent in June, well below the neutral 50 per cent threshold, signalling continued contraction in available supply.

Shippers are increasingly shifting freight from truckload to rail in an effort to manage costs, with intermodal volumes rising 10 per cent year-over-year in May. However, ITS Logistics warned that the shift is creating additional strain on inland rail ramps.

“The transition will cause ramp congestion and reduce driver turn time, putting many containers at risk of incurring storage charges. We are already seeing increased demand for rail driver capacity in the East Region, as reflected in this month’s index,” Brashier said. “It is important to understand that even a muted increase in demand could come close to breaking the already-tense thread that is the U.S. transportation market.”

Demand indicators suggest continued strength, with Descartes Systems Group reporting U.S. containerized imports of 2,428,758 twenty-foot equivalent units in May, up 6.6 per cent from April. China-origin imports rose 19.9 per cent month-over-month and 28.1 per cent year-over-year.

ITS Logistics said early June data and higher peak-season surcharges from ocean carriers suggest expectations for a more typical peak shipping season after last year’s disruptions.