Air freight declines may be ending

Geneva, Switzerland—The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing air cargo volumes (measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers) were down 1.2 percent in November 2015, compared to November 2014. Total cargo volumes, however, expanded compared to October 2015, and were higher than the low point in August. This indicates that the decline in cargo demand may be bottoming out.

The negative year-on-year comparisons occurred across all regions with the exception of the Middle East. Of the major markets that together comprise more than 80 percent of total trade, Europe was down 2.0 percent, North America by 3.2 percent, and Asia-Pacific by 1.5 percent. The comparative weakness in these regions was driven largely because the performance in November 2014 was very strong. Latin American and African markets also fell, by 6.4 percent and 6.0 percent respectively. The Middle East region posted 5.4 percent growth.

“The freight performance in November was a mixed bag. Although the headline growth rate fell again, and the global economic outlook remains fragile, it appears that parts of Asia-Pacific are growing again and globally, export orders are looking better. In fact, the downward trend in FTK volumes appears to be bottoming out. But there is a great deal of uncertainty. The current volatility of stock markets shows how much the health of the global economy—upon which air cargo depends—remains on a knife-edge,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

North American airlines experienced a fall of 3.2 percent year-on-year and capacity grew 5.8 percent. The market remains hard to read. A 0.4 percent expansion compared to October indicates that air cargo could be recovering. But export indicators are poor, making it hard to be optimistic for the coming months.